Scenario Building

We use scenario building to help organisations prepare for multiple possible futures rather than optimising for one imagined outcome. We ask: what could happen, and how would we respond? Scenario building creates coherent narratives of how different contextual factors might interact to shape distinct futures over the medium to long term. We identify key drivers of change, understanding their uncertainties and interdependencies, then develop scenarios that stretch strategic thinking beyond familiar patterns.

Scenarios aren’t predictions or preferences: they’re structured explorations that reveal what might otherwise remain invisible, helping leaders test strategies against divergent futures. We’ve used scenario approaches to support strategic planning in rapidly changing policy environments, including Europe’s labour market trends aligned with the European Commission’s Strategic Foresight process.

Links: Cedefop (2025). Lifelong learning in 2000 and 2020 [TIHR Germany and IRS contributed]; Improving the flexibility of scenarios